2005 Oscar Nomination Reactions

Well, I broke my previous record by correctly predicting 27 of the 30 nominations in the major categories, missing only Terrence Howard, William Hurt, and Best Picture nominee Munich. I even beat the formula I created, although it still did well on it's own with 26 out of 30 and correctly predicting William Hurt's surprise nomination. (It also beat Smijen's formula).

Overall, this is one of the most satisfying years for nominations in a long time. Keira Knightley had been getting a raw deal throughout the awards season, but her charming performance finally got the recognition it deserved. Also excitinG were the nominations for Steven Spielberg and Munich. Common wisdom pointed to a Walk the Line nomination, and that would've been a terrible injustice. The only really annoying nomination was William Hurt for a History of Violence. There were at least four people in that movie more deserving than him, and two from the same category! (Ed Harris and Ashton Holmes).

Once again E! provided stellar coverage of the nominations announcement, with absolutely clueless hosts making inane statements. At one point they said "One of the biggest surprises is Crash". Yeah it was completely surprising that a film nominated for the DGA, PGA, and SAG Ensemble Winner was nominated for Best Picture! What a shocker!

2005 Oscar Nomination Predictions

For this year's predictions, I devised a formula to predict the nominees. The formula is based on the nominatiosn and awards each nominee received from various Guilds and Critics Groups. Nominations for each group are worth a different score based on how well those groups have predicted nominees over the last 10 years.

While most of the predictions were solid, I wasn't completely happy with the formula. Therefore, instead of completely sticking to the formula, I decided to continue with my own personal predictions, and put the formula picks right next to it, and see which was more accurate.

BEST PICTURE

My predictions...

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
Capote
Crash
Walk the Line

The first four all received the guild trifecta (nominations from SAG, DGA, and PGA). Only twice has that happened and a film not gone on to a Best Picture nomination (Almost Famous and Being John Malkovich). I feel pretty certain it won't happen this year. Walk the Line is competing with several other films for the final spot, but among those it is the most Oscar friendly. The formula agrees with me on this one.

Formula picks...

Brokeback Mountain 6.66
Good Night and Good Luck 4.48
Capote 4.06
Crash 3.66
Walk the Line 2.24

(History of Violence 2.23)
(Munich 1.65)

BEST DIRECTOR

My predictions...

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck
Paul Haggis, Crash
Bennett Miller, Capote
Steven Spielberg, Munich

The films usually don't match up perfectly with the Picture and I think Mangold (deservedly) will be the Director left out. The formula likes Cronenberg, but I think the voters will respect Spielberg for his courage and give him the nod.

Formula picks...

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain 5.65
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck 2.31
David Cronenberg, A History of Violence 2.28
Paul Haggis, Crash 2.09
Bennett Miller, Capote 1.69

(Steven Spielberg, Munich 1.38)

LEAD ACTOR

My predictions...

Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck

The common wisdom in this category is that it comes down to Russell Crowe and Terrence Howard for the 5th spot. Logically, I have to go with previous winner Crowe in this scenario. The formula agrees with me.

Formula picks...

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote 5.98
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain 3.20
Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man 1.50
David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck 1.50
Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line 1.22

(Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale 0.74)
(Terence Howard, Hustle and Flow 0.68)

LEAD ACTRESS

My predictions...

Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Charlize Theron, North Country
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Again, this one is down to the final spot, in a battle between Knightley and Ziyi Zhang. The formula tells me to go with Zhang, but I'm going with my own personal pick (almost always a mistake).

Formula picks...

Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line 4.00
Felicity Huffman, Transamerica 2.87
Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents 1.59
Charlize Theron, North Country 1.53
Ziyi Zhang, Memoirs of a Geisha 1.53

(Vera Farmiga, Down to the Bone 0.90)
(Emmanuelle Devos, Kings and Queens 0.80)
(Keira Knightley, Pride & Prejudice 0.72)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

My predictions...

Amy Adams, Junebug
Catherine Keener, Capote
Frances McDormand, North Country
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

Globe and SAG victories for Weisz really surprised me. I'm still skeptical of her nomination chances, but no one in any category has won the SAG and failed to at least score an Oscar nomination. I'm not going to bet that this will be the first time. The formula and I agree on this one.

Formula picks...

Amy Adams, Junebug 3.09
Catherine Keener, Capote 2.30
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain 2.26
Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener 2.00
Frances McDormand, North Country 1.31

(Maria Bello, A History of Violence 0.70)

SUPPORTING ACTOR

My picks...

George Clooney, Syriana
Matt Dillon, Crash
Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Frank Langella, Good Night and Good Luck

I have to say, I don't understand all the buzz with Dillon, but with Globe and SAG nominations, it's hard to pick against him. Cheadle surprised by getting in at the SAGs, but I think the Academy will go for Frank Langella, who will be aided by the success of Good Night and Good Luck in other categories. The formula likes William Hurt, who the critics groups fawned over for his hammy 8 minute performance.

Formula picks...

Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man 2.63
George Clooney, Syriana 1.68
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain 1.58
Matt Dillon, Crash 1.41
William Hurt, A History of Violence 1.28

(Frank Langella, Good Night and Good Luck 1.23)

And that's it. I didn't bother with nominations in the other categories this year, because I usually suck at them. Last year I went 26 of 30 and that is my best ever performance.

2005 Oscar Picks

This is how the Oscar nominations would go if I was sleeping with someone from Price Waterhouse and got them to fix the ballots:

BEST PICTURE

Brokeback Mountain
Me and you and Everyone We Know
Munich
Syriana
King Kong

I could just as easily gone with Joss Whedon's Serenity or Cronenberg's History of Violence. Brokeback Mountain is one of the greatest films of the decade.

Director

Stephen Gaghan, Syriana
Peter Jackson, King Kong
Miranda July, Me and You and Everyone We Know
Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Steven Spielberg, Munich

My directors all match up with their Pictures this year. This marks Ang Lee's first Best Director win from me (I've gone as far back as 1993).

Lead Actor

Eric Bana, Munich
Steve Carell, The 40 Year Old Virgin
Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain
Viggo Mortenson, A History of Violence
David Strathairn, Good Night and Good Luck

Bana's portrait of a heavily conflicted character is the most underrated performance of the year and certainly better than soon-to-be nominee Joaquin Phoenix. Still, it's Ledger that gave the year's most deeply felt performance. It's something I will never forget.

Lead Actress

Marilou Berry, Look At Me
Miranda July, Me and you and Everyone We Know
Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice
Emily Mortimer, Dear Frankie
Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line

Berry came out of nowhere to deliver one of the most sympathetic performances of hte year and just edged out Evan Rachel Wood (Pretty Persuasion), Elizabeth Banks (Heights), and Joan Allen (The Upside of Anger) to make this list. Keira Knightly takes home the win with her incredibly winning performance.

Supporting Actor

Gerard Butler, Dear Frankie
George Clooney, Syriana
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Serenity
Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain
Terrence Howard, Crash

Sadly, only two of the performances from this fine list will make the Oscar list. Terrence Howard is overshadowed by less deserving costars, no one has heard of Chiwetel Ejiofor, and no one cares about Dear Frankie. The Gyllenhaal critics can kiss Gene Shalit's ass.

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Junebug
Maria Bello, A History of Violence
Catherine Keener, The 40 Year Old Virgin
Thandie Newton, Crash
Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain

This was a pretty easy list to compile, as these five stood well over the rest of the crowd, although I haven't seen In Her Shoes or the Family Stone yet. I love all of these performances, but I have to go with the wonderful Catherine Keener for playing the hottest grandma in movie history.

Original Screenplay

The 40 Year Old Virgin
Dear Frankie
Good Night and Good Luck
Me and You and Everyone We Know
Serenity

Miranda July's unique script for Me and You and Everyone We Know was funny without being ridiculous and touching without being saccharine. Too bad she has no chance at the Oscar.

Adapted Screenplay

Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
Munich
Pride and Prejudice
Syriana

The screenplay for Brokeback Mountain has the potential to be underrated. It's not as wordy as others that came out this year, but the powerful, economical use of dialogue reminds me of last year's Million Dollar Baby.

Film Editing

Brokeback Mountain
Good Night and Good Luck
King Kong
Munich
Syriana

For a serious, thoughtful movie set in the dreary west, Bokeback Mountain moved like a breeze.

Cinematography

Brokeback Mountain
A History of Violence
King Kong
March of the Penguins
Munich

Any of these five are deserving. There's some incredible stuff here, but Brokeback Mountain's cinematography is the most affecting.

That's about it. I didn't see enough in any other categories that would be worthy of honoring.

My Oscar Predictions will be posted tomorrow.

Top 10 Films of 2005

It's finally that time. After what turned out to be a great year for movies, thanks in part to the best ever year from the Atlanta Film Festival, it's time to list the 10 best films I saw this year.

Among great films that did not make the cut were Kirby Dick's emotionally powerful catholic abuse documentary Twist of Faith, Judd Apatow's hilarious character comedy The 40 Year Old Virgin, the uplifting underdog story Saint Ralph, and George Clooney's unique and hard hitting docudrama Good Night and Good Luck.

Among acclaimed films that missed the cut were James Mangold's completely unimaginative biopic about Johnny Cash, the uneven Capote which featured a terrific central performance but not much else, Noah Baumbach's overly cynical The Squid and the Whale, and the poorly written small town drama Junebug which wasted a terrific performance from Amy Adams.

10. Pride and Prejudice

I certainly wouldn't have expected a Jane Austen adaptation to make my top 10 list, but this film is made with so much energy and joy that it's impossible to resist. Keira Knightly gives an absolutely delightful performance as Austen heroine Elizabeth Bennet, a young woman who is too wise to suffer through a loveless marriage, but also too stubborn to allow herself to fall for the one person she does love. A uniformly fine cast, all having a grand time, is on hand for this. One of the most purely entertaining films of the year. I was smiling throughout.

9. The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill

This one came out of nowhere. I only saw it because I belonged to a movie club which screened a film in secret every other week. I certainly wouldn't have gone to see a documentary about a homeless man feeding birds unless I had no choice. Well it turns out that this is one of the most unique and moving documentaries I've seen. The central subject, Mark Bittner, is more than just the simple "homeless" description would suggest. He's extremely wise and very personable. His devotion to the flock of parrots is admirable and his carefully recorded stories of their individual exploits are extremely impressive. The film has a couple of unforggetable cinematic moments and a surprise ending that completely works.

8. Dear Frankie

Here we have a movie with such a sappy storyline that it should have gone wrong on so many levels. See Pay It Forward for an example for how something like this can go so wrong. Or better yet, don't see that. Dear Frankie is definitely worth seeing, telling the story of a deaf boy who longs to see his father again and the efforts his mother (Emily Mortimer) goes through to prevent that from happening. There are so many times when this film could have derailed, but each and every time it takes the higher, more intelligent road and the result is a wonderful human drama. Emily Mortimer is every bit as good as her fantastic performance in Lovely & Amazing, and Jack McElhone gives a surprisingly perceptive performance from someone his age.

7. Serenity

Now, this was a blast. Joss Whedon's continuation of his underrated sci-fi TV series may have flopped at the box office, but it is nonetheless a smart and entertaining ride for most (ahem) of those that have seen it. With a bigger budget, Joss managed to amp up the action sequences while still retaining the witty dialogue that was the trademark of the series. The entire cast was back, and in great form (especially Nathan Filion and Jewel Staite), but particularly noteworthy is newcomer Chiwetel Ejiofor, whose calm, but ruthless villain is one of the greatest cinematic treats of the year.


6. A History of Violence

David Cronenberg is not one of my favorite directors, as his stylistic choices generally tend to alienate or bore me. But here he has found the perfect project for his sensibilities: an adaptation of a violent modern graphic novel. All of Cronenberg's strengths (offbeat sense of humor, gruesome violence, and dark exploration of sexual themes) are put to to best use here. He also manages to get career best performances out of Viggo Mortenson and Maria Bello. When I saw Cronenberg's Crash, I wondered how a movie could be about people getting sexually aroused by car crash wounds and be incredibly boring. Well, A History of Violence is anything but boring. If anything, it's over way too soon.

5. King Kong

This is what I love about Peter Jackson. He has the resources to do anything he wants. He could have made a King Kong film that was 2 hours long and filled mostly with action scenes. He probably would've made much more money and it would've been a much easier project to complete. However, Jackson decides to spend a full hour setting things up (much like he spent so much time concluding things at the end of Return of the King), and what a glorious set up it was. It's wonderful tribute to old time Hollywood, filled with poor vaudeville entertainers, maniacal movie directors, and a reference to an actress named Fay. It also sets up the characters beautifully and makes you care about the amazing action scenes to come. It's this hour that has received the most criticism, but for me it's what makes the film great.

4. Syriana

Stephen Gaghan's political drama about oil and politics is one of the most complex and rewarding films of the year. Obviously learning alot from Traffic (which Gaghan wrote) director Stephen Soderbergh on how to use unconventional narrative rhythms in telling a story, Gaghan handles the simultaneous plots and multiple character interaction like a master playing the piano. Syriana is a stirring drama that makes many incisive points. People point to the Tim Blake Nelson speech as the most compelling moment, but for my money, it's Matt Damon's riveting speech about the future of the Middle East. Politically charged cinema doesn't get any better than this...

3. Munich

...except for this. Steven Spielberg's haunting drama about the Israeli response to the Munich Olympics massacre is among his most accomplished works. And that's certainly saying alot, unless you're one of those people too cool to appreciate Spielberg. Spielberg has been attacked for taking the Palestinian side, for taking the Israeli side, and for not taking sides at all. The first two completely misunderstood the movie and the last is just full of shit. Spielberg uses a brilliant style (think the greatest 70's paranoia thriller that was never made) to explore a deeply troubling issue where there are no easy answers. The questions asked in this movie are important, and Spielberg presents strong justifications for all sides of the debate. Also don't forget the great cast (led by a terrific Eric Bana), which has been overlooked in the wake of the controversy over the film.

2. Me and You and Everyone We Know

Every once in a while, a new actress shows up in an independent film and completely blows me away with a fresh, intoxicating screen presence. In 1997 it was Frances O' Connor in Love and Other Catastrophes. In 2002, it was Jennifer Westfeldt in Kissing Jessica Stein. And here we have Miranda July, not only the star but also writer and director of Atlanta Film Fest closer Me and You and Everyone We Know. July's multi-character comedy/drama is a refreshingly original look at modern relationships. July carefully avoids the trap of excessiveness that plagues so many quirky indie films and expertly explores the lives of several interesting characters. None is more impressive than July herself, whose radiant offbeat sensibility perfectly fits the role she has written for herself. For a first time filmmaker, she also has a very impressive visual style and coaxes wonderful performances out of the ensemble cast. July's refusal to halt the film with a static ending, and instead leaving things in a more realistic state of limbo, is one of the chief treasures of this film.

1. Brokeback Mountain

This has been described simply as "the gay cowboy movie", which is a shame because this emotionally draining love story defies that simplistic description. Ang Lee's masterpeice is the most moving portrait of forbidden romance I have ever seen. I wish every film romance was treated with so much care and affection. Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal give us brilliantly nuanced portraits of the main characters. It's really astonishing to watch how these two actors work together. One of the most brilliant things about this beautiful film is the way Lee handles the fate of Jack (Gyllenhaal). It's told in a flash sequence that makes it seem like Ennis (Ledger) is simply imagining the story, which is similar to a story told by his father. The reason Lee's choice here is so incredible is he correctly decides that it doesn't matter if this is what happened or not. What matters is Ennis thinks it's what happened. And that's the final, tragic consequence of his forbidden romance.