Return of the Oscar Formula

Eventhough this blog has been semi-retired, I decided to briefly come back for some Oscar nomination predictions.

Just like last year, I have used a formula to predict nominees, and then made adjustments to come up with my own predictions. Last year, the formula correctly predicted 26 out of 30 nominations. I made three adjustments to the formula and was correct on two of them, which left me with a 27 out of 30 correctly predicted nominations and my best ever performance. Here are this year's picks:

BEST PICTURE

The Formula Says:

The Departed 5.47
Babel 4.52
Little Miss Sunshine 4.09
The Queen 3.92
Dreamgirls 3.42

Letters From Iwo Jima 2.70
United 93 1.54
Little Children 1.45
Bobby 1.32

Adjustments: None

Here the formula comes up with the five most likely nominees. These films all received DGA and PGA nominations, and I'd be surprised if they don't mathc Oscar's five. I suppose Letters or United could surprise. It wouldn't be a major shock, but I see no reason to go against the formula here.

BEST DIRECTOR

Martin Scorsese, "The Departed 4.86
Stephen Frears, "The Queen" 2.92
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, "Babel" 2.67
Jonathan Dayton Valerie Faris, Little Miss Sunshine 2.17
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls 2.03

Clint Eastwood, "Letters from Iwo Jima" 1.89
Paul Greengrass, "United 93" 1.56

Adjustments: None

Again, I see no reason to second guess my formula when it comes up with the five most likely nominees. At least four of these five were nominated at the DGA, SAG, and PGA. Clint Eastwood's early awards season success likely inflates his numbers, but I could see him knocking out the Sunshine duo or Condon. Still, I'll stick with the formula here.

BEST LEAD ACTOR

Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland" 5.94
Sacha Baron Cohen, "Borat" 1.97
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson 1.57
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Blood Diamond" 1.49
Peter O'Toole, "Venus" 1.49

Will Smith, "The Pursuit of Happyness" 1.49
Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Departed" 0.67

Adjustments: Will Smith is in. Sacha Baron Cohen is out.

The formula breaks here. We have a three way tie for the last spot. Forest Whitaker was so dominant during the awards season that he didn't leave many points to be scored for the others. This left a three way tie among people who shared Golden Globe and SAG nominations. In the interests of coming up with a final five for the formula, a tiebreaker is used giving the nod to the person with the most previous Oscar nominations. This puts Peter O' Toole (7) and Leonardo DiCaprio (2) over Will Smith (1). In the interests of coming up with my final five, I kept all three and took out Sacha baron Cohen, who failed to score a SAG nomination (an 82% predictor in this category).

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

Helen Mirren, "The Queen" 6.19
Meryl Streep, "The Devil Wears Prada" 2.41
Judi Dench, "Notes on a Scandal" 2.25
Penelope Cruz, "Volver" 2.03
Kate Winslet, "Little Children" 1.47

Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Sherrybaby" 0.62

Adjustments: None

One of the easiest categories to predict. There wasn't much movement in this category during the awards season, aside from Gyllenhaal's surprise Golden Globe nomination. But her failure to score a SAG nomination and the strong competition doom her chances. She would have to beat out Streep or Winslet (I consider the other three locks), but I don't see that happening.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls" 2.6
Djimon Honsou, Blood Diamond 1.6
Ben Affleck, "Hollywoodland" 1.32
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children 1.3
Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed" 1.26

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed 1.045
Jack Nicholson, "The Departed" 0.73
Brad Pitt, "Babel" 0.73
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine 0.71

Adjustments: Leonardo DiCaprio and Alan Arkin in for Djimon Honsou and Ben Affleck.

The toughest category to predict this year. Murphy seems to be the only surefire lock. I really think the other four nominees could be any of the remaining 8. When in doubt, go with SAG. Therfore I put in DiCaprio and Arkin. I will vomit if Affleck gets in, which is much worse than missing an Oscar prediction. Honsou got in at SAG, and I'm probably making a mistake keeping Wahlberg on instead, but it's a gut feeling. This worked last year with Knightley.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls" 3.92
Adriana Barraza, "Babel" 1.31
Cate Blanchett, "Notes on a Scandal" 1.31
Rinko Kikuchi, "Babel" 1.31
Catherine O Hara, "For Your Consideration" 1.3

Shareeka Epps, "Half Nelson" 0.86
Emily Blunt, "The Devil Wears Prada" 0.67
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine 0.64

Adjustments: Abigail Breslin in for Catherine O Hara

The formula likes Catherine O' Hara mostly on the basis of critics awards (which will be somehwat de-emphasized in next yea'rs calculations, eventhough it helped pick William Hurt last year). O Hara failed to get a Globe or SAG nomination, and Breslin is riding the unexpected Little Miss Sunshine tidal wave.

Note: Some of these picks might not match my picks in Oscar contests, which were made at different times and depend on the rules of the contest. For instance, one contest provided bonus points for guessing less likely nominees and offered two points for Djimon Honsou. I couldn't resist picking a SAG nominee for two points.