Here are my Predictions for the 78th Annual Academy Awards
This list includes the nominees that I think will win, the nominees that deserve to win, and the best non-nominated performance/film from that category.
BEST PICTURE
"Brokeback Mountain"
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain moving tale of love, longing, and regret is far and away the best film of the year, and will go down in history as one of the classic films of this era.
Will Win: When they hand Brokeback Mountain the Oscar this year, it will be the third consecutive year that the Oscars got this category completely right.
Snubbed: Me and You and Everyone We Know was cute without being cloying, funny without being silly, and romantic without being sappy. It avoided every possible misstep that independent quirky romantic comedies usually make.
DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"
Bennett Miller, "Capote"
Paul Haggis, "Crash"
George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Steven Spielberg, "Munich"
Should Win: No need to separate director from movie here, as Ang Lee's fingerprints are all over his masterpeice.
Will Win: Lee is even more of a lock than his film. What I mean by that is if Brokeback has a 99.998% chance of winning,t hen Lee has a 99.999% chance.
Snubbed: Stephen Gaghan proved with Traffic that he could write complex multi-character political dramas. With Syriana, he also proved he can direct them, confidently moving through the various storylines and never once getting lost.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"
Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"
Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Should Win: Heath Ledger's complex, introverted performance in Brokeback Mountain was an absolutely moving work of art. I'd also be extremely happy with a David Strathairn victory, though.
Will Win: Complex, introverted performances usually don't win Oscars (sorry Peter Fonda). It usually takes a showy performance and Philip Seymour Hoffman's admittedly strong work as Truman Capote certainly fits that bill.
Snubbed: Lots of great performances in this category got ignored this year (Ledger and Strathairn are the only nominees that made my personal list), but the biggest ommission was Viggo Mortenson's restrained, yet entirely convincing portrait of a killer-turned-family man. Steve Carell amd Eric Bana also should have been here.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"
Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"
Charlize Theron, "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"
Should Win: Keira Knightley's cheerful, winning portrayal of Jane Austen's heroine was the most purely entertaining performance of the year.
Will Win: Another one of the most purely entertaining performances was by Reese Witherspoon, who will surely walk away with an Oscar this year. Too bad it's for a terrible movie.
Snubbed: Miranda July not only wrote and directed the unfairly overlooked Me and You and Everyone We Know, but she gave the stunningly original performance at the heart of the movie.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
George Clooney, "Syriana"
Matt Dillon, "Crash"
Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"
Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"
William Hurt, "A History of Violence"
Should Win: Despite an upset win at the BAFTA's, Jake Gyllenhaal's performance has been unfairly overlooked during Awards season and received some bewildering criticism. I don't quite understand. Without Jack, there is no Ennis. Ennis's final line is so powerful because Gyllenhaal has made Jack a character worth remembering.
Will Win: This is a tough category, and at least three people have a shot to win (Clooney, Giamatti, and Gyllenhaal), but George Clooney has won most of the pre-Oscar awards and I expect Hollywood to give their new king his first Oscar.
Snubbed: Chiwetel Ejiofor's calmly menacing performance in Serenity created the best villain of the year.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, "Junebug"
Catherine Keener, "Capote"
Frances McDormand, "North Country"
Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain"
Should Win: Keener gave the best performance of the year int his category, but that was for a different movie (The 40 Year Old Virgin). Therefore, I'd have to go with Amy Adams, whose emotional performance was so heartbreaking that you just want to give her a hug.
Will Win: I've been doubting her all along, but Rachel Weisz has won every major pre-Oscar award and I expect her to win the Oscar. Her main competitors are Amy Adams (who could be the MArcia Gay Harden indie darling of this year) or Michelle Williams (who could get carried along by Best Picture Brokeback Mountain).
Snubbed: The unfortunate snub of Maria Bello's performance in a History of Violence is even more annoying because the OScars decided to nominate co-star William Hurt's hammy 10 minute performance (which was only the 5th best performance in the movie). This is also the 2nd time she was overlooked, as she should have previously been nominated for The Cooler.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash"
George Clooney and Grant Heslov, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Woody Allen, "Match Point"
Noah Baumbach, "The Squid and the Whale"
Stephen Gaghan, "Syriana"
Should Win: Syriana
Will Win: Crash
Snubbed: Me and You and Everyone We Know
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"
Dan Futterman, "Capote"
Jeffrey Caine, "The Constant Gardener"
Josh Olsen, "A History of Violence"
Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich"
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Snubbed: Pride and Prejudice
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
"Don't Tell" (Italy)
"Joyeux Noël" (France)
"Paradise Now" (Palestine)
"Sophie Scholl" (Germany)
"Tsotsi" (South Africa)
Will Win: Joyeux Noel
ANIMATED FEATURE
"Howl's Moving Castle"
"Tim Burton's Corpse Bride"
"Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit"
Should Win: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Will Win: Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit
Snubbed: Deciding to only nominate/honor one movie.
FILM EDITING
Mike Hill and Dan Hanley, "Cinderella Man"
Claire Simpson, "The Constant Gardener"
Hughes Winborne, "Crash"
Michael Kahn, "Munich"
Michael McCusker, "Walk the Line"
Should Win: Munich
Will Win: Crash
Snubbed: Um, Brokeback Mountain, YOU STUPID FUCKS
ORIGINAL SCORE
Gustavo Santaolalla, "Brokeback Mountain"
Alberto Iglesias, "The Constant Gardener"
John Williams, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
John Williams, "Munich"
Dario Marianelli, "Pride & Prejudice"
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Will Win: Brokeback Mountain
Snubbed: King Kong
ORIGINAL SONG
"In the Deep" from "Crash"
"It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from "Hustle & Flow"
"Travelin' Thru" from "Transamerica"
Should Win: Don't Care
Will Win: "In the Deep", Crash
Snubbed: Not deciding to abandon this category forever.
ART DIRECTION
Jim Bissell and Jan Pascale, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Stuart Craig and Stephenie McMillan, "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire"
Grant Major, Dan Hennah and Simon Bright, "King Kong"
John Myhre and Gretchen Rau, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer, "Pride & Prejudice"
Should Win: King Kong
Will Win: King Kong
Snubbed: Sin City
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Wally Pfister, "Batman Begins"
Rodrigo Prieto, "Brokeback Mountain"
Robert Elswit, "Good Night, and Good Luck"
Dion Beebe, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Emmanuel Lubezki, "The New World"
Should Win: Brokeback Mountain
Will Win: Good Night and Good Luck
Snubbed: A History of Violence
COSTUME DESIGN
Gabriella Pescucci, "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory"
Colleen Atwood, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Sandy Powell, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Jacqueline Durran, "Pride & Prejudice"
Arianne Phillips, "Walk the Line"
Should Win: Pride and Prejudice
Will Win: Memoirs of a Geisha
Snubbed: King Kong
MAKEUP
Howard Berger and Tami Lane, "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
David Leroy and Lance Anderson, "Cinderella Man"
Dave Elsey and Annette Miles, "Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith"
Should Win: Uhhhhhh
Will Win: Uhhhhhh
Snubbed: Sin City
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
"Darwin's Nightmare"
"Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room"
"March of the Penguins"
"Murderball"
"Street Fight"
Should Win: March of the Penguins
Will Win: March of the Penguins
Snubbed: The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill
SOUND MIXING
Terry Porter, Dean A. Zupancic and Tony Johnson, "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek, "King Kong"
Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Rick Kline and John Pritchett, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Paul Massey, D. M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland, "Walk the Line"
Andy Nelson, Anne Behlmer and Ronald Judkins, "War of the Worlds"
Should Win: War of the Worlds
Will Win: King Kong
Snubbed: Munich
SOUND EDITING
Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn, "King Kong"
Wylie Stateman, "Memoirs of a Geisha"
Richard King, "War of the Worlds"
Should Win: War of the Worlds
Will Win: King Kong
Snubbed: Serenity
VISUAL EFFECTS
Dean Wright, Bill Westenhofer, Jim Berney and Scott Farrar, "The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe"
Joe Letteri, Brian Van't Hul, Christian Rivers and Richard Taylor, "King Kong"
Dennis Muren, Pablo Helman, Randy Dutra and Daniel Sudick, "War of the Worlds"
Should Win: King Kong
Will Win: King Kong
Snubbed: Serenity